Yet, as discussed here frequently, the problem inflation largely is being driven by the FOMCs still explosive Money Supply and System Liquidity growth, not by an overheating economy. March 2023 Money Supply activity reflected a continuing and intensifying 55-year record-high flight to liquidity in Basic M1 (Currency plus Demand Deposits), with Basic M1 notching higher to 35.0% of the aggregate headline Money Supply M2, its highest proportion since the same level in April 1970, a 53-year high. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. Separately, though, the Fed also purportedly has been reducing its balance sheet assets, which should slow or cut the Money Supply growth and inflation. There Is No V-Shaped Recovery November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices Moving higher to a 120.5% of its Pre-Pandemic Level, from 119.8% in February and 119.7% in January, March 2023 Basic M1 still is shy of its August 2022 unrevised record level of 123.2%. The best Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build is all about . Yet hard Money Supply numbers through the deliberately slow release of the March 2023 detail, show minimal impact, presently still expanding in the most-liquid, inflation-driving Basic M1 (Currency and Demand Deposits). (14) April 7th (Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS, and ShadowStats.com). Recessions are measured only from Peak-to-Trough, while Recoveries are measured from Trough-to-Regaining-the-Pre-Recession-Peak (timing not formally called by the NBER), which is far from being at hand, despite relative strength in some major numbers such as the GDP. How Accurate is ShadowStats on The Understatement of US Inflation With Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. I've yet to find someone who has been able to reproduce the claims made by Shadow Government Statistics about the extent to which government agencies are grossly misreporting the U.S. inflation rate. Headline March 2023 CPI-U annual inflation eased to 5.0%, from 6.0% in February, again, due to the relative easing of March 2023 energy prices against the oil and gasoline price spikes triggered by the year-ago by Russian invasion of the Ukraine. (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery The projected continuous rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio indicates that current policy is unsustainable. Allowing for the 2021 Unfunded Liabilities, reflected here, that Debt-to-GDP ratio already was 552% at the end of Fiscal Year 2021. U.S. Dollar. Shadowstats.com - Wikipedia John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, calculates inflation using the same methodology that the government used to have for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. Best Wishes -- John Williams. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. Primers & Reports. John Williams, Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary What are Shadow's specs? In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. (7) April 20th (National Association of Realtors NAR). Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). March 7th builds: Power up the pink archer. 1460b and will be detailed in pending No. COVID-19 vaccines and improved treatment have helped to stabilize a still-disrupted level of economic activity, again well shy of a fundamental, full recovery, yet Pandemic issues, including new variants and vaccination controversies, continue. Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation. -- The University of Michigans full-month release of the April 2023 Consumer Sentiment reading held little changed at 63.5, against its initial estimate of 63.5, up from 62.0 in March 2023, holding shy by 37.1% (-37.1%)[previously by 38.6% (-38.6%) in March] of ever recovering its February 2020 pre-Pandemic peak level of 101.0. -- Headline March 2023 U.3 and U.6 Unemployment of 3.50% and 6.68% notched lower from respective three- and six-month highs of 3.57% and 6.80% in February, but held above January 2023 levels. Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary "John" Williams was born in 1949. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Gross Domestic Product. That said, more commonly, sharp annual declines in recent months have tended to be statistically significant, but not the month-to-month changes. CPI Data Series (Subscription required.) The flight of cash to relatively greater liquidity and safety in the narrower Money Supply measures, specifically in Basic M1, saw March 2023 relative liquidity at a new 53-year high (Basic M1/M2) of 35.0%, since September 1970. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. (2) April 27th (Bureau of Economic Analysis), also see Note 17. Please note: Our Data Download is currently only providing the 1980-Based numbers, but 1990-Based numbers will be introduced shortly. Yet, with the new Fed Funds Rate at a 15-plus-year high (since July 2007), the earlier FOMC rate hikes already are pummeling the economy, but again, not relieving inflation. Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset
April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Economy Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit Further background on the SGS-Alternate CPI series is available in our Public Comment on Inflation Measurement. ShadowStats is Williams' attempt to provide an alternative to the official consumer price index (CPI), which he views as a flawed measure of what members of the general public have in mind when. Please note that the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Data and Graphs have been updated for March 2023 on the ALTERNATE DATA TAB (see the above links ribbon). Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. [Posted May 1st, 1:00 a.m. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. Here are the results. Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation, Four Million Unemployed People Are Missing from the Headline Labor Force Tourism Research Australia (TRA) provides statistics, research and analysis to support industry development and marketing activities for the Australian tourism industry. Gasoline prices having been in an upswing since January 2023, gaining 11.7% since December 2022, as of the just-released April 2023 monthly average [EIA]. ET]. While the now-broadest aggregate Money Supply M2 declined year-to-year by 4.1% (-4.1%) in March 2023, the highly liquid and inflation driving Basic M1 was up by 4.8% year-to-year. Alternate Inflation Charts - Shadowstats.com
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