deterministic seismic hazard analysis steps

Seismic Hazard Evaluation Conduct seismic hazard deaggregation to determine dominant seismic sources and characteristics. PDF Uncertainty Propagation through Probabilistic Seismic ... Seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking at a particular site or for a particular region. Maximum probable earthquake (MPE) is the maximum historical earthquake and the maximum earthquake likely to occur in a 100-year interval. Seismic Hazard Analysis | Mitto Consultancy Four-steps process of a deterministic seismic hazard assessment 2- Case Study of Kerman As a case study, DSHA of . The basic steps in deterministic seismic hazard analysis include 1) defining earthquake source zones, 2) selection of the controlling earthquake which could be the earthquake which is reasona-bly expected or the maximum credible earthquake, 3) determination of the Seismic hazard criteria, assessment and considerations ... Deterministic seismic hazard analysis gives a cap value for the Probabilistic Seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard can be quantified by adopting two globally accepted techniques: the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approaches. PDF A practical probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis tool ... The neo-deterministic approach allows to: . For the past two decades, the discussions are based mainly The study region is one of the most seismically active regions of western part of Himalaya, India and there are numerous major . Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) has been applied to Dhamtari and Kanker sites using the following steps: A region of 300 km radius around both Dhamtari and Kanker sites were considered and all the faults having 25 km length were marked. But This research has developed a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method using fuzzy logic for estimating seismic hazard potential in each range. But we have to know about seismology (Figure A) and tectonic (Figure B) of our study area to detect the correct model. 2.4 Schematic illustration of the basic five steps in probabilis-tic seismic hazard analysis. Seismic Hazard Analysis from Deterministic Method Using ... quake originating from nearby fault. (d) Predict the result-ing distribution of ground motion . Identification and characterization of all sources 2. A Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis(DSHA) typically assigns a maximum earthquake magnitude for a particular seismic source, often referred to as the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE). Seismic hazard analysis is an approach for obtaining estimates of future earthquakes. Our short 6-week PSHA course was so popular last year, we've been asked to provide a full length 40-hour version for those looking to deepen their knowledge of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. Identification and characterization of all earthquake sources capable of producing significant ground motion at the site. provided by pattern recognition analysis. Presented by Dr. Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Typically, they can be defined as four procedures (Reiter, 1990): Both approaches can be defined in a four-step process, and their initial steps are identical (Reiter 1990 ). The seismic hazard at Vandenberg AFB was investigated using both statistical analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of historic earthquake activity within 500 km of Point Arguello, California, and deterministic methods based on knowledge of earthquake faults and These regions are shown in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 respectively. develop the uncertainty associated with each step 5) develop the seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectrum/ conditional mean spectrum. If the 1.e-4 annual seismic hazard probability is considered, then, the "conventional" deterministic SSI results based on DRS input, should be increased by the ratio between Determining the hazard at the site. Main steps are written below (Kramer, 1996). In the context of a probabilistic ground motion analysis, hazard refers to the probability of exceedance certain amplitude of ground motion. DSHA is often used in California due to the familiarity of faults and the region's elevated seismicity. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) In the early years of earthquake engineering, deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) was widespread In DSHA the hazard is evaluated based on a particular seismic scenario (Kramer, 1996) The DSHA can be described as: 1. 8th International Conference On Integrated Disaster Management (INDM-2017) Fig. Approaches to Seismic Hazard Analysis Deterministic The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.35g resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 on the Balcones Fault at a distance of . The first step is to identify all the possible sources of ground motion. Seismic-Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: An Integrated Probabilistic-Deterministic Method by Vincenzo Convertito,* Antonio Emolo, and Aldo Zollo Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the Identification and characterisation of all earthquake sources capable of Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Consists of four primary steps: 1. previous section, an even greater problem with deterministic hazard analysis is the choice of worst-case ground motion intensity associated with that earthquake. DSHA basically four step process which is shown in the figure.1. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis approach to determine PGA was adopted. The hazard at the site is formally defined, usually in terms of the ground motions produced at the site by the controlling earthquake. Step 4 The study area is Erzincan, which is a city on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Step 4 HAZARD AT THE SITE Neo-deterministic NDSHA . Seismic HazardAnalysis Services. Steps in Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (1) Sources (3) Ground Motion (4) Hazard at Site These are the basic steps in the deterministic analysis. Basic Steps in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Seismic source characterization Estimation of source seismicity parameters (recurrence) parameters and probabilistic model Selection of ground motion attenuation models Treatment of Epistemic Uncertainties with Logic Tree Models Quantification of the seismic hazard Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with fragility (probability of failure) of the dam and the . Step 2: Surface Fault Rupture Displacement Hazard Analysis If a hazard exists, perform the Surface Fault Rupture Displacement Hazard Analysis, which includes determining the magnitude and direction of anticipated of Energy (DOE) an acceptable probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach for identifying and assessing the hazard of vibratory ground motion and differential fault displacement. Seismic hazard analysis is an approach for obtaining estimates of future earthquakes. rake angle), upper and lower seismogenic depth values, dip angle, etc. SEISMIC HAZARD. The stadiums of Al-Tajiat and Al-Zawraa are located at latitude of $${33^{\\circ}}$$ 33 ∘ 25ʹ25.80ʺN, longitude of $${44^{\\circ}}$$ 44 ∘ 17ʹ9.28ʺE and latitude of $${33^{\\circ}}$$ 33 ∘ 20ʹ39ʺN, longitude of $${44^{\\circ}}$$ 44 . Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis. The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. The site ground motions are estimated deterministically, given the magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site condition. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis A specific seismic scenario is developed and the assessment of ground motion hazard is made accordingly. Seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular area. Four steps of deterministic seismic hazard analysis (Kramer, 1996) 1. www.intechopen.com The investigative loom to PSHA was initialially A hazard assessment of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake (M = 7.5) was conducted to achieve a better definition of the seismic hazard. Following are the steps in hazard assessment: 1. The Chapter 5 provides the con clusions and further research. Seismic Risk Analysis Assesses the probability of occurrence of losses (human, social, economic) associated with the seismic hazards. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis offers a rational framework to describe elastic seismic demand in terms of peak ground motions and response spectra, and addresses key uncertainties and dependence in earthquake occurrence (both temporal and spatial), earthquake magnitude, rupture characteristics, and ground motion intensities (see Chapter 1 ). 1. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are . deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The choice of method must be selected based on site characteristics, seismicity of region and the availability of data and future applications. RIZZO provides deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses and calculations of corresponding ground motion levels and response spectra for use in building analyses, fragility analyses, and seismic risk quantification for nuclear power plants, dams, and other critical infrastructure. seismic hazards. Brigham Young University BYU ScholarsArchive Theses and Dissertations 2016-07-01 Simplified Performance-Based Analysis for Seismic Slope Displacements The tradition standards-based al . This is due to the reduced damping value in Deterministic SSI analysis (4% damping) than in Probabilistic SSI analysis (random values > 4%). the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6 -38 Nand68 -98 E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). Use of PSHA could lead to either unsafe Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; Site-specific ground response characterization; Seismic hazards are potentially dangerous conditions arising from the occurrence of earthquakes. All webcasts will be recorded and available on CalGeo's new On-line Learning Library for course attendees. Diagrams showing four steps of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis [3]. The last session will be Friday June 26th, 2020. Wang and C. Cobb, "A critque of probablistic versus [33] E. Zuccolo, F. Vaccari, A. Peresan, and G. F. Panza, "Neo- deterministic seismic hazard analysis with special reference to deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments: the New Mardid seismic zone," in Recent Advances in North a comparison over the Italian territory . Compute epistemic uncertainty variability from Steps 1 and 2 . Depending on the types of hazards identified, the process may need to be continued on a separate basis for each type of hazard or group of hazard types. Identification of the Type of Hazard: The first stage in hazard analysis is to identify the types of hazards. Main components of this study are construction of local seismic velocity models, probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses, and estimation of corresponding potential ground motions. hazard analysis, the deterministic and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard of engineering structures determines the probability of exceeding a specific level of damage or loss due to potential hazardous . 1. ANALYSIS SEISMIC HAZARD • Defined as a natural phenomenon (such as ground shaking, fault rupture, or soil liquefaction) that is generated by an earthquake, although there are examples of these phenomena also being produced by human activities. In the scenario earthquake, there is a precondition for an earthquake of a certain size and location to occur. • Strong ground motions produced by earthquakes that could affect engineered structures. Conclusions. From either a deterministic or probabilis- tic viewpoint, this design step is perhaps the best developed. Norm Abrahamson, UC Berkeley. The response spectra plotted in Figure 1.2 are the median1 spectra predicted by empirical models calibrated to recorded ground motions. In the deterministic approach, a par-ticular earthquake scenario, called controlling earthquake, is used to estimate hazard at a site. The seismic hazard at a site can be quantiied by undertaking deterministic or probabil-istic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) (Erdik 2017). Seismic hazard in an area can be estimated by either the probabilistic seismic hazard assess-ment approach (PSHA) or the deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach (DSHA) [ ]. (b) Characterize the distribution of earthquake magnitudes from each source. In this study, seismic hazard zoning for the Anzali Port and its surroundings were determined by using fuzzy logic. Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different . Some of these will be easy to identify (e.g., a known active fault); others may be more difficult to describe. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) has been applied to Dhamtari and Kanker sites using the following steps: A region of 300 km radius around both Dhamtari and Kanker sites were considered and all the faults having 25 km length were marked. Seismic Hazard Assessment Methodology To access the seismic parameters, a probabilistic or deterministic methodology is necessary. DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (DSHA) © 2021 29 •Ground shaking hazard is assessed by identifying a specific earthquake "event scenario" -one for which the combination of magnitude and distance (together with other pertinent source and site parameters) provide large levels of ground shaking After Fernandez, 2010 (GMPE) A probabilistic approach has been used to assess the seismic hazard for Uganda and the surrounding areas. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis was the first method- ology developed; it comprises four steps (Reiter 1990): 1. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Maximum credible earthquake (MCE) is the maximum earthquake that appears capable of occurring under the known tectonic framework. Seismic Waves. The purpose of this study was to conduct seismic hazard analysis for Al-Tajiat and Al-Zawraa stadiums using probabilistic and deterministic approaches. !%) Key words: Deterministic hazard analysis, estimation of the strong earthquake ground motion at a site of interest, Republic of Serbia 1. Neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment - NDSHA Account for uncertainties and gaps in the available observations, by considering a wide set of scenarios and parametric tests. This hazard includes effects of both the regional tectonics and the local site characteristics. The results obtained from the PSHA will complement the results from the deterministic approach by providing a complete picture of the seismic hazard. Fig. . I have a set of ground-motion prediction equations. Identification and characterization of all sources Selection of source-site distance parameter Selection of controlling earthquake However, using the Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) no further information is provided about the expected level of shaking or fault activation during pipeline life-cycle, the earthquake occurring probability and the effects of The aim of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is to measure the probability of over and above range of ground action levels at a site given all probable earthquakes. These sources may be in the form of point, line or area seismic source zone. The first step in the conventional PSHA is the identification and characterization of the seismic sources. I have a set of simple fault sources whose have a specific magnitude value, style-of-faulting (i.e. casting large earthquake. 3: Steps for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) 2.2 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) Norm Abrahamson will present a 6-week short course for CalGeo on Site Specific Seismic Ground Motion Hazard Analysis. Both approaches use the samedatasets,whichincludeearthquakesources,occurrence frequencies, and ground motion attenuation relationships. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis requires the availability of an earthquake catalog, relevant ground motion prediction . Usually the earthquakes are assumed to occur on the portion of the site closest to the site. Pfail for 7, 3 and 1 Level Seismic Hazard Levels . The assessment was based on the environmental effects that had effectively contributed to the high destructive impact of that event. The deterministic approach estimates the intensity measure am-plitude (e.g., peak ground acceleration (PGA) as 0.2g) un- FIGURE 13.1 The four steps of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). (Bommer, 2002). 360 Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters specific application of PSHA at a site, such as the types of earthquake sources, deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. INTRODUCTION There are two basic philosophies for the seismic hazard analysis, the so-called deter-ministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Target Spectra Development Develop design or analysis target spectra using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) or probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in accordance with the design or analysis criteria. The hazards are related to two basic phenomena resulting from the failure of a geological fault. The PSHA can also be described as a procedure of four steps each of which bear some Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientifically flawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). The case study about the seismic hazard in Yunnan Province in China is in vestigated in Chapter 4. applications, seismic hazard analysis can also be used to prepare macro or micro zoning maps of an area by estimating the strong-motion parameters for a closely spaced grid of sites. . In the present study Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) has been carried out for the states of Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand. These regions are shown in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 respectively. Now I would like to compute deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) results in order to compare the results with PSHA. SEISMIC HAZARD The seismic hazard can be . Sessions will run each Friday starting May 22nd from 11am - 12:30pm. form of hazard analysis; and the most widely used technique is the Cornell-McGuire approach [1, 2]. Some of these will be easy to identify (e.g., a known active fault); others may be more difficult to describe. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) provides a framework in which these uncertainties can be identified, quantified, and combined in a rational manner to provide a more complete picture of the seismic hazard. methodology followed for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) is described as four steps and illustrated in Figure 5. Two basic methodologies used for the purpose are the "deterministic" and the "probabilistic" seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approaches. Any physical phenomenon ( e.g. 45-hr Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Full-Length Online Course. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis of "GORAKHPUR" Region (IJSTE/ Volume 2 / Issue 09 / 065) [23] IS-1893 (Part1): 2002, Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of . In the 1960s and 1970s, the DSHA was used as the main type of seismic hazard analysis, but it has been gradually replaced by the PSHA. The deterministic method To perform a deterministic seismic hazard analy- sis (DSHA) for a critical engineering project, where the consequences of failure are intolerable, one generally does the following: Step 1: Establish the location and characteristics of all significant potential earthquake sources that might affect the site. Earthquake hazard may be analysed in two main ways: deterministically, in which a single (usually) most adverse earthquake scenario is identified, or probabilistically, in which all-potential earthquake scenarios are explicitly considered along with their likelihood of occurrence. Seismic hazards can be analyzed deterministically as and when a particular earthquake scenario is assumed, or probabilistically, in which uncertainties in earthquake size, location, and time of occurrence are explicitly considered (Kramer, 1996). An interdisciplinary approach was adopted by integrating: (1) historical data; (2) co-seismic geological effects in terms of . Further, Chap-ter 3 introduces the proposed method for fuzzy-probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Tenzin Yangkey Duke University December 15, 2019 Abstract Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been used widely over the last 50 years by seis-mologist and engineers to quantify seismic hazard level and develop building code requirements to build safer buildings for the future. Fig. While the proponents of deterministic methods would like to perpetuate the conception that there is ongoing academic debate regarding hich is the superior ethod, the truth of the atter is that deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) is simply a special case of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in which only a small number of . The first is based on the seismic history, on the return period concept, and on the knowledge of existing faults, capable or not, and does not account for high mag-nitude events, whose occurrence has been assessed in the prehistoric age. This research has developed a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method using fuzzy logic for estimating seismic hazard potential in each range. The computation of seismic hazard and probability of occurrence of ground motion levels during a specified period of time using the integration of the above three steps over all possible magnitudes and earthquake locations. (a) Identify earthquake sources. Seismic Hazard Analysis. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. Steps in Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (1) Sources (3) Ground Motion (4) Hazard at Site Instructional Material ComplementingFEMA 451, Design ExamplesSeismic Hazard Analysis 5a - 7 Fault Fault Area Source Site Fault Localizing structure Seismotectonic province Source Types the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and the deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA). Uganda is situated between the two seismically active branches of the East African Rift Valley System, which are characterized by high levels of seismicity. Confirm that the fault rupture hazard exists by repeating some or all of the preliminary screening performed by the Geoprofessional. About 21 numbers of faults and lineaments are identified as a vulnerable sources as a first step. Steps in Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (1) Sources (3) Ground Motion (4) Hazard at Site These are the basic steps in the deterministic analysis. - Deterministic Seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) Initial approach taken to seismic risk investigation discovered in nuclear power engineering applications In Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA), is organized for a meticulous earthquake, also realistic or assumed. Seismic Hazard. Figure 3. The first step is to identify all the possible sources of ground motion. The steps involved in both deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) are outlined in Chapters 4 and 5 , respectively. Based on the minimum distance from the site to the fault source, the level of ground shaking at the site is estimated. The data was shortened for records less than Mw=4, because this. ! In this study, seismic hazard zoning for the Anzali Port and its surroundings were determined by using fuzzy logic. The vulnerable source for Bangalore city is identified as Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore lineament with an earthquake moment magnitude of 5.1. characteristic earthquake, at a specific location. ground shaking, ground failure) associated with an earthquake that may produce adverse effects on human activities. (c) Characterize the distribution of source-to-site distances from each source. The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations consider- SSI analysis and "conventional" deterministic SSI analysis results depends on the seismic hazard level considered for the probabilistic simulations. Seismic hazard analysis should integrate both the deterministic and probabilistic characteristics of a region, since exclusion of effective factors result in misled judgment and prediction. 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