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The Ethiopian government has always availed itself of its power to transfer local populations off land it decides to declare a public resource. Ethiopia and Egypt Are Fighting Over the Nile River. The United States Sudan is caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. The toll on the local communities affected by the dams has been enormous. The politicisation of the Niles water and the utilisation of development projects to achieve political ends are not new phenomena. For example, Ethiopians and Egyptians are more likely to understand and appreciate the challenges that they face, particularly in the areas of water security, climate change, food production, and poverty alleviation, if they regularly interact with each other and engage in more bottom-up, participatory and inclusive approaches to the resolution of their conflicts. The 1959 agreement allocated all the Nile Rivers waters to Egypt and Sudan, leaving 10 billion cubic meters (b.c.m.) Today, however, Ethiopia is building the Grand Renaissance Dam and, with it, Ethiopia will physically control the Blue Nile Gorgethe primary source of most of the Nile waters. A Grand New Dam on the Nile: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Egypt accuses. However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam jobs Officials in Addis Ababa argue that the GERD will have no major impact on water flow into the Nile, instead arguing that the hydropower dam will provide benefits to countries in the region, including as a source of affordable electric power and as a major mechanism for the management of the Nile, including the mitigation of droughts and water salinity. Turning then to Ethiopia. Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. The multi-services provided by the hydropower development and its technical advantages could be driving forces for local, regional and national development, and a catalyst for sustainable development. Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime. Note that, under Article 62(2) VCLT, territorial treaties are excepted from the change in circumstances rule. What is your opinion on Ethiopia's chances of completing the "Great L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. Second, as also noted above, the Dam is to be used for electricity generation, not irrigation. The Chinese donors who have agreed to fund it have performed no independent social or environmental impact reviews. All three countries have a vested interest in a properly operated dam. The Nile-COM is the highest political and decisionmaking body of the NBI. The United States is Committed to Egypt's Water Security and Advancing Ethiopias Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration, Developing countries are key to climate action, Self-organizing Nigeria: The antifragile state, Managing the compounding debt and climate crises. At stake, too, is . According to Article 16, former colonies do not inherit the treaty obligations of their former colonial rulers and instead receive a clean slate. However, Egypt could argue that the territorial treaty exception, under Articles 11 and 12, applies whereby colonial treaty provisions concerning boundaries must survive the impact of succession and bind successor states. These discussions highlighted benefits such as more consistent water flow, minimising the risks of flood and drought, and the potential for discounted hydroelectricity produced by the Dam. I agree with the delivery of the newsletter. Ethiopian opinion is divided over the need for such huge investments in hydroelectric energy when the national network is still very underdeveloped and unable to cope. Given the advancement of the dam construction - the GERD being, as of March 2015, 40% complete, according to Ethiopia - Egypt had good reason to reconsider its position (RANE, 2015). River Nile dam: Why Ethiopia can't stop it being filled It also codified the principles of equitable and reasonable utilisation and no significant harm (essentially importing from the Watercourses Convention). Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. Egypt has also escalated its call to the international community to get involved. Moreover, it arguably prohibits any reduction of flow to Egypt by limiting Ethiopias use of the Dam to electricity generation alone. for seepage and evaporation, but afforded no water to Ethiopia or other upstream riparian statesthe sources of most of the water that flows into the Nile. 4. Ethiopia's dam dispute: five key reads about how it started and how it Stratfor Worldview. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. On the surface, the 558 ft tall dam Africa's biggest hydropower project belies Ethiopia's financial muscle. Learn. The GDP per capita in Ethiopia is only $475. An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. Ethiopia says second filling of Renaissance Dam complete The writer is a professor of political science at the UAEs Zayed and Cairo universities, *A version of this article appears in print in the 9 July, 2020 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly, Spain La Liga results & fixtures (24th matchday). Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. Indeed, Sudan had initially opposed the Dam but changed its position in 2012 after consultations with Ethiopia. These two factors could become serious problems. Still, Egypt may be playing with fire if it were to press the legal significance of the DoP. The New Arab (2020a). The above-mentioned Gilgel Gibe III Dam stood out as the worlds most controversial dam until the GERD. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. PDF Negative Impact of Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Population on - AJER Yet, Ethiopia is fully aware of Somalias economic dependence on the rivers originating from Ethiopias highlands. It's very unpredictable and it can be very dangerous," says Pottinger. Egypt wants control and guarantees for its share of Nile waters. A series of talks since then have largely failed to produce a consensus among the concerned countries, with tensions rising again after Ethiopia announced its intention to begin filling the dam in July 2020. The establishment of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, up 145 and a storage capacity of 74 . As mentioned above, Ethiopias dam-construction strategy is intimately linked with large-scale foreign investment in the agrarian sector and specifically in areas near the artificial reservoirs created by the dams. 2011. how much does the reservoir contain? Egypts Nile Water Policy under Sisi: Security Interests Promote Rapprochement with Ethiopia. The Eastern Nile Basin comprises Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Recently, the tensions among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile have escalated, particularly after Ethiopia announced that it had started filling the GERDs reservoir, an action contrary to Egypts mandate that the dam not be filled without a legally binding agreement over the equitable allocation of the Niles waters. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. Although Ethiopia has argued that the hydroelectric GERD will not significantly affect the flow of water into the Nile, Egypt, which depends almost entirely on the Nile waters for household and commercial uses, sees the dam as a major threat to its water security. Match. The 6,000-megawatt Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, shown here in May 2016, is scheduled to begin producing electricity in 2017. In terms of putative new law, namely the Watercourses Convention and the DoP, the key principles of equitable utilisation and no significant harm seem to leave ample room to accommodate the construction of a dam for hydroelectric generation purposes. In turn, Egypt water policy and management should be changes or modified to overcome the great challenges. The CFA was a political success for the eight upstream states such as Ethiopia as it favoured those states and isolated the downstream states of Egypt and Sudan and made them appear recalcitrant. The GERD and the Revival of the Egyptian-Sudanese Dispute over the Nile Waters. After all, the VCLT allows states to withdraw from or terminate a treaty owing to a fundamental change of circumstances which has occurred and which was not foreseen by the parties (Article 62(1)). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The Politics Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Analysis A significant segment of local opinion is also aware of the well-known problems that come with mega-dams wherever they are built, among them population displacements and resettlement, reductions in the quality of life, the spread of waterborne diseases, salinisation and the loss of productive and profitable lands, more intense competition over the remaining available land, and losses of cultural and historic heritage. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 687-702. His research indicates that rapid filling of the reservoir could lead to severe economic losses, though he notes that expanding groundwater extraction, adjusting the operation of Egypt's Aswan High Dam, and cultivating crops that require less water could help offset some of the impact. Hence, it seems that such an argument would receive a warm welcome from the current bench were the matter ever to be adjudicated there. Further, it means that this figure should be used to assess the impact of the Dam on the Egyptian economy for the purposes of calculating compensation resulting from loss of flow. Egypts main argument might be that, despite being unsatisfactory and anachronistic, the Nile Waters Treaties remain good law and are enforceable against the respective parties. Nevertheless, Khartoum continues to fear that the operation of the GERD could threaten the safety of Sudans own dams and make it much more difficult for the government to manage its own development projects. March 14, 2020, 6:57 AM. These run from rising rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia to a festering border war between Ethiopia and neighboring Sudan. 1800m long and 170m high. Test. The dispute has prompted numerous international interventions, including by Gulf Arab states, which have issued political statements and led mediation efforts. Egypt, Ethiopia to form joint committee on Renaissance Dam. The three fillings hitherto, with the most recent in August 2022, imposed no discernible harm on downstream states. International rights organisations have reported that many cases of displacement were not voluntary and that entire communities were driven from their villages. As stipulated by an Agreement of 1959 (see:Nile Main Conflict), Egypt and Sudan presented for several decades a common position vis--vis other riparians regarding the utilisation and management of Nile waters. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. Sudans agricultural and hydropower interests align with those of Ethiopia while it has a strong interest in not alienating its 'big brother' and northern neighbour, Egypt, with whom it shares a long and partly contested border (Whittington et al., 2014). It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. Perhaps the most significant project in the 2003 plan was the Chemoga-Yeda Hydroelectric Project, a series of five small dams on Blue Nile tributaries and two dams on the Genale River with a couple more envisioned for a later phase. It has led a diplomatic initiative to undermine support for the dam in the region; as well as in other countries supporting the project such as China and Italy. For example, in 2017, the UNSC highlighted the security risks of water stress in the Lake Chad Basin Region, affecting Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, based on a combination of water scarcity, drought, desertification and land degradation. In order to sustain this benefit in the long run, Ethiopias neighbouring countries will have to continue to purchase hydroelectric energy, and rainfall will have to fall at the same rate on the Ethiopian Plateau. Gebreluel, G. (2014). Some have mythified it and claim it is the Gihon River of the Biblical Book of Genesis that encircles the entire land of Cush, thereby adding a religious dimension to the politicisation. This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. This was an attempt at a wholesale replacement for the Nile Waters Treaties. Copyright 2023, JURIST Legal News & Research Services, Inc. Elliot Winter | New Castle University (UK), Egyptian Water Security and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Why Ethiopia has the Upper Hand, Vienna Convention on the Succession of States, history of copyright in the United States. An argument could be made that some of its provisions have passed into customary international law, however, that would require clear general practice and opinio juris. In any event, the dispute remains. European countries including Italy, Belgium and especially the UK controlled the Nile as part of colonisation and the broader Scramble for Africa. These colonising states used the tactic of concluding treaties (often at gunpoint) to secure their interests and, in this case, essentially prohibit upstream states from using their own waters. Improved relations among Egyptians, Ethiopians, and Sudanese can go a long way in enhancing the ability of their leaders to negotiate and adopt agreements that reflect the interests of citizens, especially regarding economic development and poverty alleviation. Across Ethiopia, poor farmers and rich business executives alike . Sudan and Egypt, which rely most heavily on the . An Ethiopian national flag is seen at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 19, 2022. First, as noted above, Ethiopia contributes 86% of the water in the Nile and so it seems only natural that it has an equitable claim to using Nile waters to aid growth in its impoverished economy. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. Disadvantages Slow process Could be washed to the wrong direction Start up costs Lesson 4: Long term investment, It can't cope with he propagation rate of water hyacinth. As a result, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has recognised water security as a possible threat to international peace. 17th round of GERD tripartite talks hits wall in Cairo. . The Tripartite National Council (TNC) was then established, consisting of members from each of the three countries with the aim of carrying through the IPoE's recommendations (Attia & Saleh, 2021). Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry? In fact, about 85 % of the overall Nile flow originates on Ethiopian territory (Swain, 2011). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Source of cooperation or - USGS Negative impacts of the GERD - Opinion - Ahram Online Search for jobs related to Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. Search for jobs related to Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 20m+ jobs. It could be a treaty or merely a political declaration as the name implies. Although the case has been dropped, the organisations work focused international attention on the dams potential detrimental impacts on the lakes habitat. Both citizens and governments should be made part of the solution to the water-related conflicts that now threaten peace and security in the Nile Basin. Crucially, however, neither Egypt nor Ethiopia are parties to the Watercourses Convention and so they are not bound by its terms. Swain, A. While the water will return to its normal state before reaching Egypt, the damage to these populations will be permanent. This article quantifies the major benefits of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project for Sudan and Egypt based on GERDP technical design and quantitative analysis. Moreover, with GERD, Ethiopia opts for a hydropower expansion strategy on the Blue Nile, and not an irrigation strategy. In the modern era, the US used water to blackmail Egypt. Crucially, however, despite being signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the legal status of the DoP was left (deliberately) vague. Hence, the customary law argument might be too ambitious. In contrast, other watercourse states on the Nile have lent their support to the Dam. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Egypt's enemy or a blessing in But the project has caused concern. Although Khartoum initially opposed the construction of the GERD, it has since warmed up to it, citing its potential to improve prospects for domestic development. Washington Must Act Now to Save Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam The disadvantages for Egypt and Sudan are the possibility of reduced river flow, although this is only really a problem during the years of filling the dam. The 1902 Treaty did not preclude Ethiopia from undertaking works that might reduce, but not arrest, the flow of waters. UN ready to promote 'win-win solution' for Blue Nile dam project The first filling of the dam in July 2020 went uneventfully. Helping Egypts cause, during the preparation of the VCSS, the International Law Commission stated that treaties concerning water rights or navigation on rivers are commonly regarded as candidates for inclusion in the category of territorial treaties. However, it must be noted that this would represent a generous interpretation of the territorial treaty exception. The Tendaho, Tekeze, and the Gibe series are only a few examples from that period. This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. It too has legal arguments it could adduce in support of its position that the Dam is permitted under international law. Ethiopia, whose highlands supply more than 85 percent of the water that flows into the Nile River, has long argued that it has the right to utilize its natural resources to address widespread poverty and improve the living standards of its people. Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam. Basically, Ethiopia should cooperate with the other riparian states in developing and adopting an effective drought mitigation protocol, one that includes the possibility that GERD managers may have to release water from the reservoir, when necessary, to mitigate droughts. A general view of the Blue Nile river as it passes through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), near Guba in Ethiopia, on December 26, 2019. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. Flashcards. The situation seemed to improve in the beginning of 2015 when tripartite negotiations were held in order to determine principles of cooperation. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product. per year, that would constitute a drought and, according to Egypt and Sudan, Ethiopia would have to release some of the water in the dams reservoir to deal with the drought. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. The Nile is not a boundary-delimiting river, hence Ethiopia would almost certainly argue that the exception should not be applied here. The dispute escalated in 2011 when Ethiopia began construction of a major new dam, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in the absence of any agreement with downstream Egypt. Egypt fears Ethiopia Renaissance Dam threatens water supply Ethiopia has the basins most suitable locations for hydropower production, and its damming of the Blue Nile would significantly increase Sudan's potential for irrigated agriculture. Afraid that a drought might appear during the filling period, Egypt wants the filling to take place over a much longer period. As early as 1957, Ethiopian officials said that the Somalian economy could not survive on its own given how heavily dependent it was on Ethiopia. It states in Principle III that the parties shall take all appropriate measures to prevent the causing of significant harm. grand ethiopian renaissance dam. The colonial powers have departed and so to continue to enforce treaties agreed based around their interests would be irrational. Finally, Ethiopia could make a strong case that the operation of the Dam is in alignment with the core principles of international water law, namely equitable utilisation and no significant harm. These are found in Articles 5 and 7 of the Water Courses Convention respectively and, despite the scepticism outlined above, arguably form part of customary international law. 74 cubic metres. The dam was named the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) because it was designed to bring about the economic and renewal of Ethiopia, a nation mentioned in Genesis 2:13 as the Land in which . Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. July 26, 2022. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation. "The Israeli installation of the missile system around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed after the Israeli work began in May 2019, considering that it is the first Israeli air defense system abroad that can launch (two types of missiles), the first with a range of 5 km, and the second with a range of 50 kilometer". Whittington, D. et al. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Fact Sheet Mainly, for the downstream countries, the. l Coordinates 111255N 3505 . The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is a Big Deal - BORGEN However, the Convention took almost twenty years to enter into force (from 1997 to 2014) due to the lack of necessary ratifications by states. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. The instrument was a success in terms of cooling tensions between the states which seemed increasingly likely to come to blows. In that light, Egypt should minimize trips to Washington, D.C., New York, and Brussels, and instead use its diplomatic resources to improve its relations with the other riparian states. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will increase energy generation and development in Ethiopia, but it may have unwanted consequences for other Nile River users. Ethiopia rejects Arab League resolution on Renaissance Dam These are two of the largest dams in Africa. The Washington Quarterly, 37(2), 25-37. That seems unlikely given that the DoP concerns the Dam alone and was agreed only between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan; whereas the Nile Waters Treaties concern the whole Nile Basin and involve many more states. First came the 1999 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA).